Methodology

WW3 Risk Index Formula

The WW3 Risk Index is calculated using a weighted average of five key risk factors:

WW3 Risk Index = (0.3 × M) + (0.2 × G) + (0.15 × E) + (0.15 × I) + (0.2 × P)

Each factor is normalized to a scale of 0-100, resulting in a final index value between 0-100, where higher values indicate greater risk of global conflict.

M: Military Activity (30%)

Number of active conflicts, military mobilizations, NATO/Russia/China/US deployments, and nuclear threats.

G: Geopolitical Tension (20%)

Diplomatic conflicts, trade wars, political hostilities (e.g., US-China tensions, NATO-Russia confrontations).

E: Economic Instability (15%)

Stock market crashes, hyperinflation, energy crises, trade sanctions.

I: Intelligence Warnings (15%)

Reports from intelligence agencies (CIA, FSB, Mossad) on imminent threats.

P: Public Panic (20%)

Social media sentiment, public demonstrations, panic buying, and other indicators of mass anxiety.

Data Sources

Our index aggregates data from multiple reliable sources to ensure accuracy and comprehensiveness:

Military:
Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI), International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS)
Geopolitical:
United Nations reports, Council on Foreign Relations, diplomatic statements
Economic:
World Bank, IMF, major stock indices, commodity prices
Intelligence:
Public intelligence assessments, declassified reports, expert analysis
Public:
Social media sentiment analysis, Google Trends, news media coverage

Note: This index is for educational and informational purposes only. It represents a simplified model of complex geopolitical dynamics and should not be used as the sole basis for decision-making.